As clock ticks on 2025 Federal Election odds of $10 a day childcare policy pledge become increasingly remote

In a recent address at the National Press Club in Canberra Prime Minister Albanese offered his first major political speech of the year in which he highlighted the achievements of his Government to date and provided some early insights as to what key issues he will be focussing on in the upcoming election. 

Although the speech did reference early childhood education and care (ECEC) multiple times, the sector, and policy reform associated with it, did not feature as a central pillar in the same way as it did in similar speeches made in the run up to the 2022 Federal Election. 

“For Labor, nothing is more important to building Australia’s future than education. Early education. TAFE and apprenticeships. University. And, of course, schools,” Mr Albanese said before highlighting progress made in the public school sector, particularly around funding agreements. 

Elsewhere Mr Albanese did indirectly reference his pre-Christmas joint statement with Education Minister Jason Clare and Early Education Minister Dr Anne Aly in which it was confirmed that a re-elected Labor Government would abolish the activity test and introduce a “3 day guarantee” for families. 

For close watchers of ECEC policy signalling, and its evolution over time, the absence of any overt reference to additional major policy reform, over and above that already announced by Labor, suggests that should the party be successful in retaining Government, a shift away from the current Child Care Subsidy based demand side model, at least for the next three years, is not on the cards. 

This was not the case in August to November last year when Mr Clare went on the record and likened a future universal early education system to “a universal healthcare system in the form of Medicare or universal superannuation system” and Mr Albanese said he would not be bound by the Productivity Commission’s reform recommendations which advocated for a modified status quo when it came to policy reform. 

In addition during this period, leading think tanks, including Impact Economics and Policy, were focussing on aspects of a fixed price funding model and a series of high profile articles in the Australian Financial Review (here and here) allegedly confirmed that Mr Albanese and his Cabinet were seriously exploring $10 a day childcare as a major pledge for the upcoming election.

With less than four months remaining before the next Federal Election, it is becoming increasingly likely that the activity test removal and 3 day guarantee announced by Mr Albanese will be the central planks of his ECEC policy mix and that progressing a fixed fee $10 a day childcare system, for now, is on hold.