School readiness slipping despite ECEC gains, research shows

New research suggests that while participation in early learning has increased across Australia, the proportion of children developmentally on track at the start of school is declining, prompting concern across the early childhood education and care (ECEC) sector.

A recent analysis published in The Conversation draws on Australian Early Development Census (AEDC) data to highlight a growing disconnect between enrolment in early childhood education and positive developmental outcomes at school entry.

“In 2021, 96.3 per cent of children participated in early childhood education in the year before school. But paradoxically, the proportion of children who were ‘on track’ on all five domains of the AEDC decreased from 21.7 per cent in 2018 to 20.4 per cent in 2021.” The Conversation, 2025 Read the full article here.

The article identifies that while access has expanded, developmental vulnerability remains persistently high in domains such as language, emotional maturity, and social competence. The data also reveal growing inequities, with children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, culturally diverse families and regional communities more likely to start school behind their peers.

Researchers attribute these trends to a complex web of contributing factors. These include workforce shortages, inconsistent program quality, and a broader landscape of family and social stressors, ranging from housing instability and food insecurity to parental mental health and disrupted caregiving.

The findings support longstanding sector advocacy calling for sustained investment not only in access, but in educator quality, continuity of care, and genuine inclusion. Experts stress that enrolment alone does not guarantee impact, children need stable relationships, intentional pedagogy and culturally responsive environments to thrive.

These findings emerge as the federal government prepares to implement a key reform: the 3-Day Guarantee, taking effect from 5 January 2026. Under the change, all Child Care Subsidy (CCS), eligible families will receive at least 72 hours of subsidised early learning per fortnight, regardless of their activity level.

ECEC leaders have welcomed the reform as a step toward greater equity and more consistent attendance, which is a critical factor in supporting positive learning and wellbeing outcomes. However, the sector continues to call for parallel investments in the workforce, with a focus on retention, remuneration and professional development.

There are also calls for better integration between early learning, health and family support systems. Cross-sector collaboration, particularly for children experiencing disadvantage, is seen as key to ensuring that developmental concerns are identified early and that children and families receive timely, targeted support.

As policymakers and providers reflect on these trends, the message is clear: early learning matters but quality, continuity and context matter just as much. To improve school readiness outcomes, reforms must be holistic, inclusive and focused on what works for children and communities.