Federal Election 2025: Early learning set to be a deciding issue

Early childhood education and care (ECEC) is shaping up to be a defining issue in the upcoming federal election, with voters looking for clear commitments on affordability, access, and quality.

Over the past few years, families have seen major reforms rolled out, including increased Child Care Subsidy (CCS), the introduction of the Three-Day Guarantee, and a 15 per cent pay rise for early educators. Yet despite this progress, access remains problematic for some families, fees continue to rise, and workforce shortages persist.

The Mitchell Institute and Victoria University’s Election 2025 Education Policy Brief highlights a sector still undergoing significant change. Nearly one in four families live in a ‘childcare desert’ where more than three children compete for each available place.

These gaps are most visible in regional areas and lower-income communities, where for-profit providers may be reluctant to establish services due to limited financial incentives. In contrast, some metropolitan areas are experiencing oversupply and falling utilisation.

The three major parties each have differing perspectives on the ECEC sector and how it should be funded.

During its current term in Government, Labor has invested in building a more universal system, including $3.6 billion in wage supplements for educators and over $1 billion to establish 160 new centres. Labor has also removed the Activity Test for the first 72 hours of subsidised care per fortnight, a shift toward universal access.

The Coalition supports a market-based approach and has called for the Activity Test to be reinstated, arguing that it ensures targeted support and encourages workforce participation. The parties remain cautious about universal models, raising concerns over cost and sustainability.

The Greens are advocating for a fully publicly funded ECEC system that eliminates fees and guarantees access for all families. The party’s platform also includes stronger support for educators through improved pay and conditions.

What is clear is that all major parties now recognise ECEC as core social infrastructure. As Australians head to the polls on Saturday, 3 May, the direction of early learning policy will be shaped by which approach voters support.

The full Mitchell Institute and Victoria University Election 2025 Education Policy Brief is available here.