LDC supply growth nationally continues to moderate despite continued elevated rates in VIC

The growth rate of newly opened long day care centres granted service approvals continued to show signs of moderation in the three months ended September 2025 with five of the seven jurisdictions covered in the latest ACECQA Snapshot recording reductions on a year on year basis. 

Nationally there are now 9,520 new LDC centres across Australia, an increase of 3.2 per cent compared to the same time last year, which represents the lowest rate of growth recorded since the second quarter 2023.

From a longer term perspective it does appear that the structurally higher growth rates experienced between 2016 and 2020 (pre – COVID) between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent have not been matched since with the range now more likely to be between 3.0 per cent and 4.0 per cent. 

When considering the number of services opened year to date across Australia, the pattern of a relative moderation in new centre openings nationally is confirmed with 218 centres opened thus far in the year compared to 227 last year and 243 the year before. 

That being said, the slowdown in national absolute and relative growth rates masks some quite pronounced divergences across the seven jurisdictions that are covered by the ACECQA snapshot of which the key stand out is Victoria which sustained its high growth rates of around 5.4 per cent for the third quarter in a row. 

New South Wales and Queensland however continued to moderate with the latter now more than 2.0 per cent lower than the strong growth rates recorded in 2023.

Growth rates in Western Australia and South Australia remain quite high at 6.1 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively but unlike Victoria are materially below the high rates recorded earlier in 2025 and the ACT notably recorded its second quarter of annual falls in LDC growth for the region. 

It is clear that the post COVID supply boom that started to materialise in late 2022 has run its course and overall supply rates, with the exception of Victoria, are trending lower. 

What remains to be seen however is just how meaningful of an impact the ECEC sector’s high profile child safety challenges and the additional regulatory scrutiny they will bring will have on developers’ propensity to build new centres going forward. When combined with demographic headwinds and persistent cost increases the odds are better than even that supply dynamics will continue to ease in 2026 and beyond. 

To review the latest NQF snapshot please click here.