LDC supply growth continues to moderate as falls in NSW/QLD outweigh gains in WA

The annual growth rate of long day care (LDC) services across Australia has fallen again in the second quarter of 2024, with much of the post COVID-19 increase in supply growth neutralised according to the latest ACECQA NQF snapshot. 

 

As at June 2024, there were 9,143 LDC services operating across Australia (compared to 8,855 last year.) The additional 288 centres represents an increase of 3.25 per cent, a growth rate which is 0.4 per cent lower than the peak rates achieved post COVID-19 in Q3 2023 and around 1.25 per cent lower than the peak rates pre COVID-19.

 

 

It is now clear that the mini surge experienced last year has culminated with national average growth rates now heading back towards the bottom of the long term range of between 3.0 per cent and 4.5 per cent. 

 

The broader trend of falling supply growth is confirmed by the performances of the three larger states, all of which have been trending lower over the medium term with Queensland’s post COVID surge now pared back significantly. 

 

 

Although activity in the larger continues to moderate, the same cannot be said for the smaller states, particularly Western Australia, which recorded the fastest annual growth in new LDC centres on record. 

 

WA saw 48 centres open in the 12 months ended June 2024, an increase of 5.9 per cent on the same period last year taking total centres to 862. 

 

 

It is unclear specifically what is driving the growth in Western Australia although high migration rates from both inside and outside Australia will likely be playing a part. Regardless it is fast becoming an increasingly significant market for LDC with WA now representing 9.4 per cent of LDCs in Australia, up from 8.7 per cent prior to COVID-19. 

 

To review this quarter’s ACECQA snapshot please click here.