Australia’s population outlook: What it means for the early childhood sector

The Australian Government’s release of the 2025 Population Statement provides a timely snapshot of demographic change, one with significant implications for early childhood education and care (ECEC) services across the country. The latest projections confirm slowing population growth, declining birth rates, and a shift toward an ageing population, reinforcing the need for strategic planning, policy alignment and investment in the early years.

• Net overseas migration is moderating, expected to fall to 260,000 in 2025–26, roughly half the post-COVID peak.
• Population growth will slow to 1.3% in 2025–26 and to 1.2% annually from 2026–27, down from a 1.4% average in the 2010s.
• Australia’s birth rate is projected to fall to a record low in 2025–26.
• The median age is increasing, forecast to reach 40 years within the decade and 43.7 by 2065–66.

1. Falling birth rates may reduce enrolment pressure in some regions, particularly in metropolitan areas already experiencing a plateau in early childhood numbers. Services will need to review demand forecasts and tailor future planning accordingly.
2. Targeted infrastructure investment in growth corridors and outer regional areas remains essential, particularly where young families are still settling due to housing affordability.
3. Workforce supply and cultural diversity may shift in response to slower migration. This may affect recruitment strategies and community engagement models, especially for services supporting children from CALD backgrounds.
4. Population ageing increases the economic imperative for early years investment. With fewer working-age adults supporting a growing older population, early learning plays a pivotal role in ensuring future productivity, workforce participation (particularly of parents) and social cohesion.

• The 3-Day Guarantee for early childhood education and care, aimed at ensuring affordable access for all children
• Expanded and enhanced Paid Parental Leave to give families greater flexibility and support in the early years