What AIFS' family formation research could mean for early childhood education and care

Australia's latest research into young people's aspirations for parenthood may not have been written with early childhood education and care (ECEC) in mind, but it offers valuable insights into the environment in which future families are making decisions.

The Australian Institute of Family Studies' (AIFS) latest Young Australians' Family Formation snapshot found that while most young Australians still hope to have children, their aspirations are shaped by far more than financial considerations. Trust in institutions, confidence in the future, employment security and broader social conditions all play a role.

For the ECEC sector, the findings reinforce an increasingly important reality: early learning does not exist in isolation. It forms part of the broader social infrastructure that supports children, families and communities.

One of the strongest findings from the research was the relationship between institutional trust and aspirations for parenthood.

Young Australians who reported higher levels of trust in institutions, including hospitals, schools, the legal system and social services, were significantly more likely to hope to have children than those with lower levels of trust.

While the study did not specifically examine trust in early childhood education and care services, it raises an important question for the sector.

If confidence in public institutions influences family aspirations, maintaining public confidence in early learning services is likely to remain critical as Australia continues to strengthen child safety, quality and accountability.

Recent reforms, including stronger child safety requirements, enhanced regulatory oversight, national worker registration and increased expectations around governance, may therefore contribute to maintaining public trust not only in individual services, but in the broader early childhood system.

The research also highlights that decisions about parenthood are increasingly shaped by whether young people believe they will be supported.

For decades, discussions about fertility have focused on housing affordability and financial assistance.

The AIFS findings suggest the picture is more nuanced.

Employment security, institutional trust and confidence in the future all appear to influence family aspirations.

For the ECEC sector, this reinforces its role as more than an education service.

Accessible, high-quality early learning enables workforce participation, supports family wellbeing and provides an essential part of the infrastructure that allows parents to balance work and family responsibilities.

One of the more surprising findings was that housing affordability, while a major concern for young Australians, was not independently associated with whether they hoped to have children.

Instead, broader confidence about employment opportunities and the future showed stronger associations.

This suggests that policies designed to support families may need to extend beyond financial assistance alone.

For ECEC, this means that quality, accessibility and public confidence remain important parts of the broader policy environment that supports family wellbeing.

For providers, demographic planning is often based on birth rates, housing developments and population growth.

The AIFS research suggests another factor deserves attention: how confident young Australians feel about becoming parents in the first place.

While the study does not establish that trust in early learning services directly influences fertility decisions, it reinforces that family formation is shaped by broader social confidence.

As governments continue investing in child safety, workforce capability and stronger regulation, these reforms may contribute to building the confidence that underpins healthy communities and, ultimately, future demand for early childhood education and care.

The AIFS snapshot is not a study of the ECEC sector, nor does it claim that early learning policy alone will influence Australia's fertility rate.

However, it highlights an important point for policymakers and sector leaders.

Early childhood education and care is increasingly recognised as critical social infrastructure.

Supporting families does not begin when a child enrols in a service, it begins by creating a society in which young Australians feel confident about becoming parents in the first place.

Read the full research here.