Expanding childcare supply starts with asking the right questions

Australia's early childhood education and care sector finds itself at a pivotal moment.

Recent reforms have improved affordability for many families, with measures such as the Three-Day Guarantee expected to support greater participation in early learning. At the same time, governments continue to emphasise the importance of access, recognising the role high-quality early childhood education and care plays in supporting children's development, workforce participation and broader economic outcomes.

Yet as demand continues to grow, a fundamental challenge remains.

How can Australia expand childcare supply in a way that is sustainable, equitable and capable of delivering quality outcomes for children and families?

The answer is not as simple as building more centres.

Before policymakers and providers focus on increasing the number of places available, two critical questions need to be addressed: where is additional supply most needed, and what conditions are required to make that supply viable?

Access is not evenly distributed

One of the persistent challenges within the Australian childcare system is that access varies significantly depending on where families live.

While some metropolitan communities have experienced substantial investment and service growth, many regional, remote and disadvantaged communities continue to face limited access to early learning opportunities.

This creates an uncomfortable reality. The children who often stand to benefit most from participation in high-quality early childhood education and care can be among those least likely to access it.

Population growth adds another layer of complexity.

Growth corridors on the outskirts of major cities continue to attract young families, placing increasing pressure on existing services. Waitlists remain common in some communities, while providers in other locations report vacancies despite broader concerns about access.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply one of overall supply. It is understanding where demand exists, where it is likely to emerge and how services can respond effectively to local needs.

Demand is growing faster than capacity

Recent policy changes designed to improve affordability have been widely welcomed across the sector. However, increasing affordability also increases demand.

As more families become eligible for support and participation rates rise, services face growing pressure to accommodate additional children.

In theory, market demand should encourage expansion.

In practice, the sector faces a significant constraint.

Workforce shortages continue to affect providers across Australia, limiting their capacity to grow even when demand is strong.

Service leaders consistently report challenges attracting and retaining qualified educators and teachers. Competition for staff remains intense in many locations, while workforce shortages are particularly acute in regional and remote communities.

The result is a situation where demand may exist, funding may be available and communities may require additional places, yet providers still struggle to expand because the workforce needed to support that growth is not available.

Supply growth must also consider viability

While discussions often focus on creating additional childcare places, there is another trend emerging across parts of the sector that warrants attention.

There is an increase in the number of services being offered for sale, alongside instances of providers choosing to close services that are no longer considered operationally sustainable.

The reasons vary. Rising operating costs, workforce pressures, increasing compliance requirements, changing market conditions and occupancy challenges can all affect a service's long-term viability.

Importantly, these trends are not being experienced uniformly across the country. Some communities continue to experience strong demand and waiting lists, while others are seeing increased competition, softer occupancy levels and greater financial pressure.

This raises an important question for policymakers.

If the objective is to increase childcare supply, should the conversation focus solely on creating new places, or should equal attention be given to ensuring existing services remain viable and sustainable?

Every service that closes represents not only a loss of places, but also a loss of established relationships, experienced educators and community infrastructure that can take years to rebuild.

Understanding why some services are exiting the market may be just as important as understanding where new services should be developed.

Buildings alone do not create access

Discussions about childcare supply often focus on infrastructure.

New centres are visible, measurable and politically attractive. They provide a tangible demonstration of investment and growth.

Yet buildings alone do not create access.

A service requires qualified educators, educational leadership, operational sustainability and ongoing community demand to succeed.

At the same time, rising construction costs, planning delays and increasing regulatory complexity have made development more challenging than ever.

For providers considering expansion, the question is not simply whether a community needs additional places. It is whether a service can operate sustainably over the long term while maintaining quality outcomes for children.

This is particularly important in thin markets, where lower population density can make viability more difficult despite clear community need.

Quality must remain part of the conversation

As governments and sector leaders consider ways to expand access, quality cannot become a secondary consideration.

Families are not seeking access to childcare alone. They are seeking access to high-quality education and care delivered by skilled professionals in environments that support children's learning, wellbeing and development.

The National Quality Framework has established important expectations around quality, safety and continuous improvement. Any strategy focused on expansion must ensure these foundations remain strong.

The challenge is not choosing between access and quality. It is ensuring both can be achieved together.

A more strategic approach to growth

Expanding childcare supply will require more than demand-side funding or new infrastructure projects.

It will require a coordinated approach that considers workforce development, service viability, planning frameworks and community need.

It may also require a more nuanced understanding of what access means in different parts of Australia.

The solutions that work in metropolitan growth corridors may not be appropriate for regional towns, remote communities or areas experiencing socioeconomic disadvantage.

As the sector continues to evolve, one thing is becoming increasingly clear.

The question is no longer whether Australia needs more childcare places.

The more important question is whether the sector can create the right places, in the right locations, supported by the right workforce and conditions to ensure they remain available for the families who need them most.

Answering that question will shape the future of early childhood education and care for years to come.