Fewer children, more centres: how providers can prepare for the 2027 enrolment year

With fewer children using approved care and more centre-based services operating across Australia, Enrolment Boost founder Martin Niedenfuhr shares practical considerations for providers preparing for the 2027 enrolment year.

“We haven't changed anything.”

It is a phrase Enrolment Boost founder Martin Niedenfuhr says he is hearing increasingly from early childhood education and care (ECEC) service owners as they prepare for 2027.

“People say, ‘We haven't changed anything for years, and this is the first year we haven't caught up by the end of the year,’” Mr Niedenfuhr said.

“That's scary, because when they enter the next year, all the older children go to big school. They didn't catch up, and now they've got this kind of exponential decline.”

For some providers, established approaches to attracting families are no longer delivering the occupancy levels they once did.

Fewer children, more centres

In the June quarter of 2026, 30,280 fewer children used approved care than a year earlier, according to Department of Education data. The number fell in every state and territory. Over the same year, the number of centre-based day care services grew by 279.

National occupancy is estimated to have fallen from 81.8 per cent in December 2023 to 76.1 per cent in December 2025.

While national figures do not reflect conditions in every local market, they highlight the importance of understanding changing demand and competition at the individual service level.

“Marketing your centre is no longer a choice,” Mr Niedenfuhr said.

“Parents looking for care need to be sold on care. They're not just going to select it as the default. They need to be told what it's important for, what the outcomes are and what the benefits are. They don't need to be told, ‘Hey, we exist, we're here.’ That doesn't work anymore.”

Communicating the value of early learning to families

“We've had a lot of negative media, and it's making parents question themselves: am I making the right decision?” Mr Niedenfuhr said.

“Childcare isn't a quick decision. It's a long one.”

A generic “book a tour now” advertisement does little to address those questions. Mr Niedenfuhr starts with one question for owners: “What is good about your centre that you can scream from the rooftops? Do you have specific things that no one else can do?”

For providers, this reinforces the importance of giving families clear, meaningful information before asking them to arrange a visit.

“Parents don't go window shopping for childcare,” he said. “Parents select childcare based on a lot of emotional and psychological factors. If you're saying the same thing as everyone else, how is anybody going to understand anything differently?”

Communication should also reflect where families are in their decision-making process. Those actively searching for a service may be ready to arrange a tour, while families encountering a service through social media may first want to learn about its educational approach and daily experiences.

Helping families find accurate information online

As digital search tools evolve, providers may also need to review how accurately their services are represented online, including through artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted search.

“You can never fully track what AI is going to present, but you can help it get the correct answers,” Mr Niedenfuhr said.

“Your website's a great start, but it goes beyond the website. Being number one on Google helps a lot, but it's not the be-all and end-all.”

Before January, providers can:

• Review how their service appears in conventional and AI-assisted search results, recognising that responses can vary.
• Publish clear information about fees, operating hours, age groups, programs and enrolment arrangements in accessible website text.
• Maintain consistent service information across their website, Google Business Profile and StartingBlocks.gov.au.
• Respond professionally to public feedback while respecting family privacy and confidentiality.

Making centre tours relevant to families

Centre tours provide an opportunity for families to understand a service’s educational approach, environment and relationships with children.

“Don't use the tour to show them your centre, because your centre is not going to be much different from the one down the road,” Mr Niedenfuhr said.

“If it is, the centre down the road will just sell them on why theirs is better. It's a race to the bottom.”

Mr Niedenfuhr recommends beginning with a conversation about the family’s priorities and tailoring the visit to their questions and circumstances.

A parent returning to work who is worried about their child settling in may want to understand the support available and how educators communicate with families. A parent focused on school readiness may be interested in how the service supports children’s learning and transitions to school.

Responding to enquiries and maintaining communication

Timely communication can help families obtain the information they need when considering an early learning service.

“The one that responds the fastest will usually get some kind of positive response,” Mr Niedenfuhr said.

“Never, ever let them go silent, because if you do, somebody else won't, and they'll get that tour.”

Mr Niedenfuhr recommends a consistent approach to managing enquiries and centre visits:

1. Initial enquiry: Acknowledge the enquiry promptly and arrange a personal response as soon as practicable.
2. Before the tour: Confirm arrangements and provide families with the information they need before attending.
3. After the tour: Thank families for visiting, provide relevant enrolment information and ask whether further contact would be helpful.
4. Two to three days later: Follow up if this is the timeframe agreed with the family.
5. Ongoing contact: Respect the family’s preferences and decision-making timeframe.

Agreeing on further contact can help services maintain useful communication without placing unnecessary pressure on families.

Mr Niedenfuhr said Enrolment Boost clients implementing these approaches typically recorded an additional eight to ten tour bookings a month, although results varied by service and local market.

“This isn't groundbreaking,” he said. “It's good, long-term, steady leads.”

For providers preparing for 2027, reviewing online information, centre tours and enquiry processes before the new enrolment year may help identify opportunities for improvement. The starting point is understanding what families need to know, making that information easy to find and following through when they make contact.

Enrolment Boost offers a free Occupancy Health Audit, designed to help providers review their online visibility, enquiry management and follow-up practices.

Martin Niedenfuhr has spent more than 15 years in Australian early childhood education and care, including supporting marketing across one of the country's largest childcare networks. As founder of Enrolment Boost, he helps owners fill places by understanding how families choose care, from first search to first day.