LDC new centre growth falls to 2.2% as weight of closures and fewer openings start to bite

The percentage growth in net new long day care service approvals in the three months ended September 2026 fell to 2.2 per cent when compared to the same period last year, data from the latest ACECQA snapshot has shown.

As of 30 September there were 9,726 centres open and operating across Australia up from  9,520 at the same point in 2025 with the net increase of 206 centres the lowest yearly rise for at least ten years and around 42 per cent lower than the high point for this cycle recorded in March 2025. 

Overall growth rate has now recorded its sixth consecutive quarterly fall with the most recent data suggesting an acceleration in the quarterly rate of contraction although the falls across jurisdictions are not uniform with Victoria, Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia showing the largest declines and New South Wales bucking the trend. 

Although it is difficult to discern with certainty what is behind the deceleration it is likely to be a combination of factors including closures associated with Government actions and operator network rationalisation as well as the diminishing appetite of developers, responding to higher build costs, increased interest rates and concerns around securing tenants, to commence new projects. 

2026 YTD sees materially fewer new centres however NSW appears to buck the trend

So far in the first nine months of 2026 there has been an increase of 151 centres across Australia compared to 218, 227 and 243 in the first nine months of 2025, 2024 and 2023 respectively with Queensland, South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia showing reductions and in some cases material ones. 

New South Wales has bucked the trend however, with its year to date openings higher than the same nine month period last year despite examples of regulatory closures and operator rationalisation increasingly common across the state.

As of September 2026 New South Wales had 3,727 operating centres, up 2.4 per cent compared to last year and 0.5 per cent compared to the end of June 2026. It was the only substantial jurisdiction to show rises on both time horizons and stands out against its peers as the one state that has thus far failed to see supply moderate materially in recent times. 

Slowdowns very evident in other major states and territories 

Despite NSW’s persistent growth the other four major ECEC jurisdictions by size have all seen meaningful fall backs with WA and SA seeing the largest reductions by size. WA is now growing at 2.2 per cent per annum compared to 8.4 per cent at its peak in March 2025 and SA is now growing at just 1.0 per cent having peaked at 5.9 per cent in March 2025. 

Vic and QLD have also seen notable contractions although the former, which has tended to have a structurally higher overall growth rate over time or so, is now at levels not seen for over a decade growing at just over 3.0 per cent. 

Taken as a whole the evidence suggests that the market is responding to the various fundamental headwinds impacting the demand for early learning services in Australia however, with enrolment growth, as reported by the Department of Education, tracking at 2.9 per cent behind last year the rebalancing of supply and demand is still some way off. 

To read the latest quarterly snapshot please visit the ACECQA website here.